Augusta, Maine – In case you missed it, new reporting from TIME is highlighting “just how much danger Collins is in as she faces re-election in Maine in 2026,” especially after the passage of Republicans' dangerous budget bill that will have devastating effects on Maine.

The report explores the consequences of Collins’ critical vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, her “protest votes” being “as strategic as they are symbolic,” Collins showing “independence only when it doesn’t really make a difference,” her already “lousy poll numbers,” and the drastic effects Republicans’ budget bill will have on Maine and how Collins “let it proceed.”

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TIME: Susan Collins Was Facing a Tough Re-Election Even Before Voting Against Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’
By Philip Elliott
July 9, 2025

  • When someone crosses Donald Trump, the retribution tends to come fast and fierce. But when Sen. Susan Collins of Maine voted last week against his One Big Beautiful Bill, a tax- and safety net-cuts behemoth, the President was atypically silent. That may be the biggest indicator of just how much danger Collins is in as she faces re-election in Maine in 2026.

  • Collins’ opposition was not enough to kill the giant domestic bill that may be the lone legislative lift of the 119th Congress. She was the 50th nay, which forced Vice President J.D. Vance’s to provide a tie breaking 51st vote. Collins is seldom the deciding factor; she did not sink Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court and voted for all but one of Trump’s second-term Cabinet picks. Her protest votes are as strategic as they are symbolic; FiveThirtyEight found she voted with Trump 67% of the time during his first term. Plus, on an early test vote on this bill, she let it proceed…

  • Collins is the lone Senator up for re-election next year in a state that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried in 2024.

  • State Democrats […] are primed either way to make Collins own the Trump record, especially her votes for his Supreme Court nominees in his first term. While she was re-elected after those votes, the Justices have since overturned a half-century of precedent on abortion rights in Roe.

  • Republicans in Washington, meanwhile, have seemingly endless patience with Collins […] Her tangles with Trump have been largely performative, not predictive. She is no John McCain, who with a single thumbs-down signal thwarted Trump’s first-term effort to repeal Obamacare. Cynics say that Collins shows independence only when it doesn’t really make a difference; no one on her side of the aisle really unloaded on her after the vote against the latest package. Most had her back, saying they understood her choice.

  • Her net approval rating sank 12 percentage points—more than any other Senator’s numbers—between the first and second quarters of this year, according to Morning Consult. Her disapproval number stood at 51%, up from a 44% average in the January-March window.

  • And she is definitely viewed less warmly than when she was at a comparable point ahead of her 2020 bid. In 2019, 52% of Mainers had a favorable impression of Collins, according to Morning Consult polling. Today, the number is 42%.

  • This suggests she’s going to have a trickier time than when she was at the comparable point ahead of her last campaign. In 2019, ahead of her 2020 bid, her net positive numbers were 13 points. Today she’s at a net negative of 9 points, according to the same pollsters. That means roughly 1-in-5 Maine voters have changed their minds about Collins in a state where her last victory was secured by less than 9 points.

  • As a practical matter, about 34,000 Mainers stand to lose health coverage as the bill was drafted. Her effort to secure $50 billion in earmarks for rural hospitals expected to be hit particularly hard by the legislation failed. Two solar projects in the state were put on hold even before the bill passed. Hospitals were already bracing for shifting services.

  • Among voters in Maine, a majority—including a majority of Republicans—says she does not deserve to be re-elected, according to polling from neighboring University of New Hampshire. A striking 71% of all Maine voters say this should be her last term, and 57% of Republicans agree, according to a survey taken in April. That’s a simply brutal number.

  • Flipping ahead a few pages in the same UNH binder, things get even worse. Their survey finds Collins with a favorability number of just 12%, landing a 58% unfavorable number. Among Republicans, the gap is a 19% positive to a 43% negative.

  • The University of New Hampshire Survey Center found the bill was deeply unpopular, according to a June poll. A 58% majority did not want to see the bill pass, including 72% of independent voters.

  • So Collins is facing some pretty lousy poll numbers and is going to be dogged by her no vote that had no real upside. The vote against Trump is not going to be the salve that cures her dour numbers. She defied Republicans but is not going to get any love from Democrats. She’s going to be hounded by a bill […] Plus, the headwinds are historic—and that’s before Trump decides whether he will launch his own revenge.

See more: What Mainers Are Saying: “Collins Bears Full Responsibility,” “Let the Citizens of Maine… Down Big Time” with Passage of GOP Budget Bill; ICYMI: Susan Collins “May Not be Able to Avoid the Blame” for GOP Budget Bill Despite Apparently “Orchestrated” Vote [Portland Press Herald]

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